Ongoing climate change is causing drying across the southwestern US, a trend that is projected to continue. Hotter droughts have already caused substantial tree mortality and projected warming and drying cause uncertainty about the future of forest ecosystems. Uncharacteristic wildfire can act as a catalyst for change in vegetation communities. Understanding the possible response trajectories of woody species is central to develop forest management strategies to improve system-level resilience. We modeled woody species trajectories under projected climate, both with and without wildfire, for the upper Rio Grande watershed (approx. 1.5 million ha). Our analyses suggest that climate change alone will result in lower rates of change in species abundance and distribution across the landscape. In contrast, when wildfire is included, the effect on lower elevation species is pronounced, with higher mortality of juniper and pinyon pine. By late century, this led to a reduction in woody cover at elevations below 2300 m. At mid- and higher-elevations, woody species richness decreased as fire facilitated a transition from conifer species to aspen. This work demonstrates the potential for substantial future woody vegetation change in the southwest and the need to quantify the potential for management activities to moderate the rate of change.