Over the twenty-first century, the combined effects of increased fire activity and climate change are expected to alter forest composition and structure in many ecosystems by changing postfire successional trajectories and recovery. In this study, we simulated future vegetation dynamics along an elevation gradient in the southwestern US comprising pinyon-juniper woodlands, ponderosa pine forests, and mixed-conifer forests for the period 2000–2099, to quantify the effects of future climate conditions and projected wildfires on species productivity and distribution. While we expected to find larger changes in aboveground biomass, species diversity and species-specific abundance at low elevation due to warmer and drier conditions, the largest changes occurred at high elevation in mixed-conifer forests and were caused by wildfire.

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